Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Sell Top of Range

Remember that 2465 to 2480 range?  It was the same old trade day after day.  Now that we're back into the range, I don't think the bearishness from last week's dip has completely gone away.  Yes, it will go away, soon, but it may take a few days.  At which point I think this market will dip again.  Look at what happened to the bond market the last couple of days.  Usually the bonds keep their bid a bit longer even after a stock rebound due to after effects of the safe haven bid.  But bonds have given back all of their North Korea headline gains.

The notable weakness in the bond market so quickly after a rebound should keep stocks in check today.  I don't see a wild run to new highs like you would have seen in 2013 or 2014.  This is a heavier market and the breadth is worse.  So I will be a willing seller at the top of the range, near SPX 2480.  Just waiting for the buyers to get complacent again and we should get towards the top of range.

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