Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Bad News for Contrarians

CNBC's Brian Kelly is short-term bearish stocks and short-term bullish bonds.  He is one of my best tells on fast money.  Neck and neck with Dennis Gartman for the title of Most Valuable Teller.  They tell it like how they feel.  And what they feel is what a lot of weak handed fast money feels.  If this type of fast money has bought, it means that they have to sell, and sell quickly.  It is most valuable when they are doing this counter trend, but it also has decent value when they are running with pack.

This year, Brian Kelly has been continuously bearish stocks and bullish gold and TLT (long term Treasury ETF).  He has screamed to get long TLT and gold throughout the year.  Those that followed his advice has lost chunks.  Those who faded him have made a lot.

This gives me pause when it comes to shorting the market, and I covered S&P after I found out that Brian Kelly was bearish stocks.  We will be going higher, bullish sentiment or not, because the money is flowing in and will keep flowing in anticipating Trump goodies.  The market is always strongest when anticipating good news, not after the good news has come out.

It seems like the market will be dead for the next several days, so mostly staying on the sidelines and reset for what should be an interesting 2017.

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