Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Blog Break

Market has gotten back to the previous highs.  But the current run looks worse than the post-Brexit run, due to the much higher interest rates and poorer breadth figures.  There aren't as many stocks participating in this rally as we had in July.  If I was a paper napkin chartist, I would say that we just might have a double top on our hands.  I won't go that far and be bearish, but definitely not bullish here.

And the bond market looks like it will have to consolidate this higher range from 2.15-2.35% 10 yr yields.  Lot of unwinding going on.  I disagree with many of the pundits that are calling the end of this bond bull market.  The structural weakness in the economy will not be eliminated with some tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending.  The financial market needs QE to maintain high valuations.  QE >>>>> Fiscal stimulus.

Will be back after Thanksgiving.

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