Friday, August 14, 2015

Short Term Bottom in Oil

Oil looks like it has found a level where buyers are willing to take a stand.  I don't expect a big bounce, but I think we will trade sideways by bouncing from here to consolidate this down move.  The yield curve is flattening which means the bond boys are expecting the Fed to raise rates in September.

Just as we've probably found a short term bottom in oil, I think we've found a short term top in Treasuries.  It looks like we had the fear based top in Treasuries on Wednesday as the S&P was dropping towards 2050.  You had crude oil weak all day yesterday and Treasuries kept going lower, not higher.

The S&P is resilient as always, staying in this trading range.  I am being repetitive, but you cannot listen to the Twitter paper tigers who expect a correction on these dips.  Look what happened on Wednesday, there are some big hands that are buying up the market on these 1% down days and rallying the market into the close.  Happened last Friday, and then this Wednesday.

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