Wednesday, July 9, 2014

No Conviction No Money

This market must be sucking the lifeblood out of a lot of traders.  It is a good investing market, low volatility, steady uptrends, and minimal stress.  For traders looking to capture quick moves in volatile markets, this is agony.

Yesterday we finally got a decent down day, and market rallied off the bottom decently, although I mistimed it.  I probably deserved to take a loss because I don't have sufficient trust in this market at these levels.  It is always an uphill battle to make money if you do not have conviction on your trades.  I did not have conviction when buying ES 1959 yesterday.

It still is a buy the dip market but at these nosebleed levels, it is hard to pull the buy trigger after just a one percent pullback from all time highs.  And I don't think its a good shorting market either, so we're stuck in no man's land.

Huge rally in Treasuries and Bunds over the last 2 days.  It is surprising, coming off such a big jobs number.  Supply and demand fundamentals still favor going long Treasuries, just because of the gravitational force low yields in Europe are having on the US bond market.  But I can't get myself to get long Treasuries here, because I see a potential short term trend change in Bunds which will spill over into the Treasury market.

Neutral here on everything, just like Dennis Gartman.

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