Thursday, May 15, 2014

Sentiment Shifting in Bonds

The opinions on the bond market are changing slowly.  Now that we have broken out of the 2.6-2.8% range in the 10 year, the bears are disappearing bit by bit, replaced with newly formed bulls.  On CNBC yesterday, the Fast Money crowd were all bullish on bonds, and overall, it seems like there are now more bulls than bears in bonds.  It doesn't change my opinion, but it does make it more likely that if we get a break higher in stocks over the next few weeks, the bonds will probably selloff, not ignore it like it has up to now.

We got a late selloff yesterday in stocks, and the sentiment is not that bullish.  Put/call ratios are still fairly high given the price action.  It seems like investors are nervous here, even though the market has remained strong.  With continuing weak economic data out of the Eurozone, ECB has their finger on the QE trigger.  The ECB bazooka coming up in early June will keep bears from getting to brave.  It will also keep longs invested because they don't want to miss any QE rallies.  Feels like we'll get a move lower down to SPX 1870, bottom for a few days, and then rocket above 1900.

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