Thursday, May 8, 2014

Rocky Mountain Charts in Tech

You went up a huge tech stock mountain from the debt ceiling deadline to earlier this year, most peaking in March.  Since then, the descent has been rapid.  In its wake, the momo charts look like a volcano.  We are back at the base, with tons of overhead baggage above.  I have no interest in going long these momo tech wrecks.  They are still way overvalued, and I don't even need to name specific names.  They are ALL overvalued.  A few examples of what happened below:  SCTY and FEYE.



There are loads of charts like those above.

I should have sensed the top in March when the insanity of daily 100% gainers in pot stocks, fuel cell stocks (PLUG is a POS), Chinese flavor of the months, and biotech fever, each little biotech supposed to be the next cure for cancer or hepatitis or whatever.  It was a mania for anything momo, both big and small.  Now that the dust has settled, surprisingly the S&P is unscathed, but the Nasdaq is damaged goods now.  Just like 2000.

I eventually expect the hiding places to keep dwindling, the money managers are still confident that their defensive stocks are bulletproof.  Eventually this rolling correction will start affecting the large cap primary names.  While it still seems like easy money to buy the dips, like yesterday, and on Monday, the market is getting heavier by the day.  It is not a healthy market when defensives are leading and bonds are strong.  And yet the consensus among Wall Street is for the economy to pickup in the 2nd half.  I don't know how they can forecast the future, but if the consensus is optimistic about the 2nd half, that leaves much more room for disappointment.  And at current prices, stocks are priced for good times, not bad.

Not much to do here, as the market chops around.  Being long bonds is enough for my bearish appetite for now.  If I get even more bearish, I will start shorting emerging markets/China.

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