Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Narrowing Breadth and Increasing Volatility

The market is getting toppy.  I have been reluctant to short the S&P, but we are getting closer to the top of this market.  Tops are processes, so it will not be one quick moment, but a series of tests at the top before this market rolls over.  

We are getting the signs of a topping market, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 underperforming the S&P 500.  We are also getting sharp intraday moves, which has happened for 3 straight days, despite the S&P mostly going sideways.  and VIX has been very sticky here above 15, when usually it lingers between 12 and 13 when near all time highs.  Higher volatility while trading sideways is one of the signs of a top, such as in April 2010, May 2011, and April of 2012.  

It looks like we could have one last gasp rally into the beginning of April, where I will look to put on shorts in both S&P and emerging markets, and also get long bonds.  Till then, its just a waiting game.

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