Monday, September 23, 2013

Dip then a Rip

The market overshot on the Fed no taper news.  The next catalyst will be the debt ceiling, and since this market is filled with chicken littles, it will shake up this market a bit.  Not a lot, because institutions aren't suddenly going to dump their holdings in the hole, en masse just because of an expected debate over the debt ceiling which will be raised.  This is nothing like 2011, when you had the European sovereign debt panic lurking in the background while investors were sweating over the debt ceiling.  There are no external problems with this market, there is no financial panic lurking.

We should pull back to 1680, get the chicken littles nervous ahead of debt ceiling, and then rip higher when it becomes obvious that the debt ceiling will be raised.  Anyway, its much better risk reward buying the dip ahead of debt ceiling than shorting ahead of it anticipating some kind of panic.  This market isn't set up to panic, since Fed has proven they aren't going to taper unless the bubble gets bigger.

Expecting a trip down to 1680 this week or next week, it will likely be the best buying opportunity before we rip higher to 1770 by December.

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