Friday, June 28, 2013

V Bottom

It has never paid to sell weakness in the S&P 500, so you have these fleeting dips that get snapped up without much fear or capitulation.  The Fed is so scared of any stock market or bond market weakness that it starts jawboning the market higher whenever you get dips. 

It happened yesterday when the Fed blabbermouths said the market "misinterpreted" the Fed.  Well, what is there to misinterpret?  The market sold off because it now believes the Fed will not sit and do nothing if a bubble grows.  So if the Fed won't allow the stock market to bubble up even higher by tapering, doesn't that automatically make stocks less attractive?  In effect, it has become the Bernanke put and the Bernanke covered call.  Shorting calls (tapering when markets bubble higher) against the common so there is limited upside.

But all the money in the world is squirreling their money into U.S. equities, it is the most loved market in the world.  So it will be the most resilient to any downside, and if you are going to buy any risk asset, it should be U.S.-based, either bonds or equities. 

I think we made a low this week that should last till at least August.  You have shaken out the weak hands from stocks, and bond market panic is likely over.  I expect a run back up to SPX 1650 by next week. 

No comments: