Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Still in a Downtrend

We had a really sharp rally from the lows on Friday and all of a sudden we're supposed to keep squeezing higher?  The risk reward for a long is very poor here unless you have a V bottom.  V bottoms are not common, they just seem that way because we had so many in 2009 and even a few in 2010 and 2011.  They usually occur in the most bullish of markets where demand for equities is high or equities are so cheap that they are coiled to go higher.  Neither is the case now. 

All the paper napkin technicians are suddenly constructive on the market, when they were bearish late last week.  Don't buy the hype, we're going to have to test those levels from Friday again before we make a meaningful bottom. 

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