Friday, November 16, 2012

Low VIX Theories

It is difficult to move down 75 points in the ES in one week and still have the VIX under 18.  Even given that the end of year is usually less volatile.  But despite the correction, the market has been going down with relative calm.  Thinking through why this is, I can come up with only two theories.  1.  There aren't many weak hands left in this market.  Even with bearish headlines, there is  a lack of volatility.  2.  Traders are complacent because since 2009, every dip has been a buying opportunity and the forces who believe in BTFD and have succeeded with that strategy are numerous and tenacious and will not cave in to ordinary weakness.

If theory #1 is why the market is not volatile despite the 75 point loss since the election, then it is safe to buy.  But if its reason #2, then it is NOT safe to buy.  I am still not sure which is a bigger factor in the calm nature of the selling, but I am leaning towards reason #1 so I am fairly constructive on buying at current levels for a trade.  I usually prefer to see lots of volatility and a VIX spike before I buy but we haven't gotten it so far. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thank you!
Tony