Thursday, October 4, 2012

Intraday Volatility

You can just feel it in the action.  This is much different than when were trading at 1453 in mid September in a super tight intraday range.  The action is much more two way, with eager buyers and eager sellers.  Increased volatility intraday while we churn.  Same price, different price action.  There is a battle going on, where as before, the bears not only didn't put up a fight, but they didn't even show up.

The Obama - Romney debate was an excuse to gap up the futures, and I'm sure we'll get a spike higher on a favorable nonfarm payrolls report, but afterwards, the cycle sets up for weakness heading into Q3 earnings.  The market has given us a lot of information since September 25, our first sizeable down day after QEinfinity.  As expected, we bounced back off the first pullback, as it is almost always bought after a strong uptrend.  The question now is do we consolidate for a few more days early next week or do we go down in earnest right after the nonfarm payrolls report.  I don't know, but either way, I would be favoring the short side over the next 2 weeks. 

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