Lowering QE3 Expectations

A few weeks ago, the market was totally sure that there would be QE3 by September's meeting.  But now the consensus is not so sure.  It makes for a trickier environment.  If we had the consensus believing that QE3 was on the way in September, then it would offer an easy sell the news opportunity.  Now that is not the case.  Of course, things can change with whatever Blue Horshoe messages come from Bernanke to the Wall Street Journal's Hilsenrath.  This Jackson Hole speech shouldn't offer any promises of QE3 in September, but that doesn't mean they won't pull the trigger.  My gut tells me we go higher from here, top out and then make a strong move lower.  It just doesn't look like a top yet, with the investing community still not totally sold on buying this market.