Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Getting Ready for Earnings

There is not much on the calendar other than earnings for the next couple of weeks.  It should be a bearish catalyst as the Q2 numbers begin to show a slowdown, and the outlook should be horrible.  If there is one thing about earnings, the market focuses much more on the outlook than the past quarter.  I can't imagine too many companies with positive outlooks, with the way Europe and China act.  Also do not underestimate the caution that CEOs will take ahead of the fiscal cliff.  That adds more uncertainty to the mix.

If the market wasn't so far above the lows, it wouldn't be such a problem, but we rallied huge off the June bottom, there is a lot of air underneath for disappointment.  Sentiment is rather complacent right now.  Bad earnings outlooks and complacency is a bearish combination.  I added some short yesterday and will add more today. 

2 comments:

kent_c_straight said...

I think that was just a short squeeze at the eod.. I also feel we're going lower.

Market Owl said...

I am short and will hold this for a while. I am ignoring the minor wiggles here, I believe the trend for the rest of July is down.