Friday, July 13, 2012

ES Lagging Crude

If you just watched crude oil, you would guess that the ES should be around 1360.  Because crude oil has been acting very strong while ES has been going down day after day.  It is unusual because crude oil has been so tightly correlated with the stock market.  This must be the most fearless 6 day decline in history.  It is quite informative to see the rally from 1320 to 1370 be met with a lot of hope, but the decline from 1370 to 1320 has not been met with much despair.  This feels like the early May situation. 

The VIX is too low when the earnings are coming in this weak and the economy is only getting worse.  Expecting a sharp up move in VIX anytime now.

2 comments:

kent_c_straight said...

My 2 cents..Apple earnings next week will be the key..if aapl exceed earnings, which they always do...it will push this market higher..only after that I will look to short.

Market Owl said...

Actually Apple reports on July 24 so its 2 weeks away. Next week is INTC, IBM, MSFT, GE