Monday, June 18, 2012

Triage

In the field of battle, you have soldiers that get wounded and killed.  With limited resources, you have to decide who to treat among the wounded.  Those that just have minor cuts and bruises receive no treatment (France).  Those that have deep cuts and broken bones receive treatment (Italy).  Those that have shrapnel all over their organs, broken bones, massive internal hemorraging and blood loss are left to die (PIGS).  You don't try to save everybody.  In order to maintain the whole, you need to get rid of the dying that weighs down everyone else. 

Europe is still in denial.  They are still trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone.  It is a sign of the times.  Short term (and misconceived) thinking.  The fear that Grexit would collapse the Eurozone, keeps Europe from doing the right thing.  Getting rid of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Spain.  If they are having this hard of a time getting rid of little old Greece, imagine them trying to get rid of Spain.  They won't.  This Eurozone crisis will keep dragging on because of this short term thinking of saving everyone.  The main effect of this bailout everyone policy is to drag down the value of the euro.

Europe has to let PIGS default, save the remaining bailout money to save Italy.  Forget about Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece.  Let them default, leave the Eurozone,  devalue their currency, and move on.  They are uncompetitive with the euro as their currency, unless the PIGS accept wage/asset deflation, which is about as likely as hell freezing over.   Trillions of capital that will be used to save PIGS bond holders (not the country) tells you all that you need to know.  The capital markets have politicians at their whim and ALWAYS get what they want.

P.S. Just watching and waiting, not much of an edge either way today.  I don't expect much in the way of opportunities for the next few days.  Probably best to just take a BTFD strategy.

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