Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Sum of All Fears

On CNBC yesterday, Tres Knippa, a trader in Chicago, went from moderately bearish to moderately apocalyptic.  You have a slice of the current market sentiment, expressed by the talking heads, and through the extremely high equity put call ratios.  Traders are scared.  And yet we only went down to 1344 and bounced back strong to close near unchanged.  The market is almost sold out and we are close to a strong intermediate move back that will rip the face off the shorts.  Sure you might be able to squeeze out another 1 or 2% from the short side on this move, but facing 6-7% of risk to do that.  I'll pass on those odds.  The next up move will last at least 2 months. 

My conviction is only stronger with all the doom and gloom, with Europe acting relatively strong, and the resilience of this market. 

6 comments:

alexnewbee said...

next move up will be very strong, but short. about 1 month in duration.

Anonymous said...

I realize that now I've been trading or at least started trading and participated in the market in one way or another than many of these people who come on in CNBC and are labelled so called experts. Definitely more than many people who post on the internet. Not talking about anyone specifically but in general.

At a certain point in time, your experience and the been there done that can work as a major asset to your personal wealth. With knowledge we can create money with money from our laptop instead of buying a business and being there everyday.


OL DAWG.

Anonymous said...

Dude ... 89% of traders lose long term. Make sure you invest the hard earned money in something with real value ... such as a business !

Anonymous said...

I feel what you say Anon.

But whether we like it or not, whether it's true or fiction, we all.. for the sake of the survival of the fittest... have to believe we belong in that 11%.

That's what dreams are made of.

Sometimes... dreams come true.

Can u feel me?

-Ol DAWG

Market Owl said...

Most traders lose money, but that doesn't mean there are not many ways to make money. Half of the game is self-control and discipline, the inner game. The outer game, the other half is finding edges. You need both.

Anonymous said...

Yea .. a blog full of optimists ... :-)