Friday, May 25, 2012

Recent Market Action

Information gained on this market this week.
  1. The market will not make a V bottom.  We're not going to panic and capitulate.  It will be a grinder where rallies get quickly sold and selloffs get quickly bought.  I expect a lot of 1-2 day rallies that fade quickly.  Also a lot of sharp short covering rallies, many which will be fueled by Euro rumors. 
  2. 1330 is a big barrier, and is a good spot to attempt short positions.  I feel more comfortable shorting this market than going long it, but I will take small stabs at longs if we test 1280-1285 support zone. 
  3. The dollar is strong because the euro is weak.  But as I've said many times in the past, the dollar is a deeply flawed currency, more than the euro.  They are all a bunch of muppets feeding the desires of the financial markets.  I wouldn't be surprised if we got at least 2 QE announcements this year, one from the ECB and one from Banana Ben.  
  4. Intraday volatility remains surprisingly low for such a weak market, which is the reason the average trader is not scared.  This is the lowest volatility correction that we've had since the bottom in 2009.  Not a good sign for bulls.
  5. The fast money is now short.  You have to think like a short seller to anticipate moves.  Short sellers are closing out positions ahead of the long weekend.  

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