Thursday, February 23, 2012

Killing Em with Inflation

The silent killer is inflation.  You don't notice it as much because wages are increasing but in the end, the money doesn't buy as much.  You have a gigantic federal deficit thanks to never ending tax cuts, zero interest rate policy with in your face monetization of debt via QE.  So no wonder there seems to be an endless bid to this market.

I could show you a good time too if you pumped me up with $1.5 trillion every year.  What Banana Ben has done is tell savers to bite the bullet so the economy can stay afloat and stock markets can rise.  Pretend like there is no inflation and keep QE going till they bleed dollars out of their eyes.  Shorting in this environment is a fool's game.  You just buy the dips because this grand experiment, which the ECB is also hell bent on following, will just create a rising tide of higher inflation and instability.  It will get interesting over the next couple of years when you get populist complaints about high food and gas prices falling on deaf ears at the central banks around the world.  The 99% with no equities or commodities investments will be crying while the 1% will be laughing as the S&P, crude oil, and gold hit new all time highs. 

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

You make it seem as though 99% of America has no money and we live in some kind of 3rd wolrd nation. That is hardly the truth. Most baby boomer middle class couples own a home, have 401k's valued over a million and cash in the bank. How else do you think they support all their 30 and 40 year old unemployed kids.

Anonymous said...

Fiat money is being destroyed all over the world. Huge deficits will ensure low interest rates and continued fiat money devalue. Inflation will ensure gold/commodities/market goes up.

eh said...

endless bid

Pretty much describes it. The decline on Wed was very aggressively bought on Thu; no news of significance that I recall. And futures are right now pointing to more gains on Fri.

Note this comment elsewhere.

BTW, your 'owl' symbol/image looks more like an eagle.

eh said...

Most baby boomer middle class couples own a home, have 401k's valued over a million...

News flash for you: "most" means more than half. As such, yours has to be one of the more absurd statements I've read on the internet in quite a while.

Go away you anonymous idiot. But I guess with being an idiot an' all, it's better to remain anonymous.

Anonymous said...

You must be short the market. have fun shitting out of two holes

eh said...

Most baby boomer middle class couples own a home, have 401k's valued over a million and cash in the bank.

Your link is about the UK. And even then it does not prove the main point you made that I -- ahem -- have a problem with: "most".

Provide a link that shows this statement is true -- i.e. that "most" = more than half of "baby-boomers" (couples as you say) -- and make sure the term is defined -- have 1) 401k accounts worth more than $1m. The other parts -- cash in the bank and owning a home -- I will assume are true.

And please note the more than half part.

Thanks in advance.

And no, I'm not net short the market. That's because I'm not an idiot.

Market Owl said...

Most people don't have much money in the stock market. A very high percentage of stock market wealth is in the hands of the top 5%. The Fed believes in trickle down economics, remember, Bernanke is a Republican and he believes in supply side economics. You supply money, and watch everything grow. The Fed is aimed at saving the banks, and the wealthiest, they could care less about the masses.

The banks need inflation because otherwise, their huge leveraged balance sheets become time bombs. Inflation is going to hit the poorest the hardest, like it always does.

Anonymous said...

You two should calme down. Perhaps you should be careful who to call an idiot if you wish to comment or debate someone's opinions. You obviously have something coming to you by doing such and now playing like a victim gets no sympathy from anybody

Anonymous said...

I do know Americans do not accurately report wealth in polls and media. This is fact, because of tax issues, liabilities, etc etc etc. The poor Americans have a much louder megaphone these days than the rest and I believe the discussion here is about how bad off, underinvested and broke Americns are. This bias creates the illusion of a broke society. I doubt they are as the original post claims.

Anonymous said...

A million dollars in 401k if you've worked 35+ plus years these days isn't much. I believe it. That's usually the low middle end of an average multi decade 401k

eh said...

I believe it.

Honestly, and take no offense, I'm not so interested in what you "believe". I'm interested in fact. Which is why I ask for a link -- or something -- to prove the claim. Which was stated as fact.

Think of the claim: half of all 'middle class baby boomers' are millionaires counting their 401-k accounts alone.

That's the claim I called absurd.

And please stop posting as anonymous.

eh said...

This paper is a couple of years old:

The Wealth of the Baby Boom Cohorts After the Collapse
of the Housing Bubble


This paper makes projections of wealth for 2009 for the baby boom cohorts (ages 45 to 54 and ages
55-64)...The projections show: 1) The median household with a person between the ages of 45 to 54 saw its net worth fall by more than 45 percent between 2004 and 2009, from $172,400 in 2004 to just $94,200 in 2009 (all amounts are in 2009 dollars)...The situation for early baby boomers is somewhat worse. The median household with a person between the ages of 55 and 64 saw its wealth fall by almost 50 percent from $315,400 in 2004 to
$159,800 in 2009.


Of course the market has recovered since 2009, meaning so have invested 401ks. But housing prices have largely not. And this study does not cover only the "middle class". But still, look at the numbers: there is no way "most" middle class baby boomer couples (a proxy for households) are 401k millionaires.

Again I ask: Where is the evidence? Provide some evidence for your claim.

Anonymous said...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7085489/Baby-boomers-own-half-of-Britains-wealth.html

"People under 45, meanwhile, own little more than a tenth of all property and assets."

Boomers own 90% of the wealth here in the UK. It is quite possible for half of the middle and upper middle class boomers to have rich coffers valued over $1million US dollars.

I live in England but I would imagine the US has a higher concentration of baby boomer wealth in the middle upper middle class than here.

Most of the poverty complaints are from the Gen X and the working class which I would imagine compromise the vast majority of the population in the US.

Anonymous said...

It is 90% not 50% because of war generation inheritance which passes thru now.

Anonymous said...

You have no evidence which disproves the wealth of the baby boomer middle class either. Your article takes a median value, not mean value of the entire spectrum which underweights outlier values in the upper class. We're talking specifically middle class boomers.

Anonymous said...

you accuse someone of anonymity while using the moniker, "eh". you must really hate urself. get some help, it may be generational if untreated.

eh said...

Man oh man.

you accuse someone of anonymity while using the moniker

I did not "accuse" anyone of anything. In a comment thread, it is simply a LOT more convenient to have people to whom you can respond -- not a bunch of commenters, 90% anonymous, so you cannot tell one 'Anonymous' from another. Past a point it gets ridiculous. And by the way, thanks for helping to make my point: you can be just as anonymous via a moniker. So why not use one? Sheesh.

The same roughly irrelevant UK link has now been posted 2x. Why?

Here is what is needed: evidence to substantiate the claim that "most" -- meaning more than 50% -- US, 'middle class', 'baby boomer' households (i.e. couples) are 401k millionaires. And please make sure the evidence defines the terms 'middle class' and 'baby boomers'.

Pretty simple, right?

I understand that wealth is disproportionately distributed, meaning older people have a lot more of it; I am not disputing that. What I dispute is the very specific claim that was made. I will repeat the claim so it is crystal clear:

Most baby boomer middle class couples own a home, have 401k's valued over a million...

Emphasis mine.

You have no evidence which disproves the wealth of the baby boomer middle class either.

I posted a link and an excerpt from which one can infer that the claim is false. I can dig up more. But I should not have to. The first 'Anonymous' commenter made a very specific claim. I ask for evidence that this claim is true. That's all.

Anonymous said...

You cannot disprove the claim. I would have to side with the original claim that most middle class boomers have 7 figure 401k's. Assuming 1/10th of salary invested in a 401k and matched by employers from the late 1960's to mid 1970's for 35 years right into the parabolic move in the dow from the early 80's into late 90's when indices rose 1000%+, 7 figure 401k is a conservative figure. Also, he/she is refering to the middle class boomers. A specific demographic mostly employed by the fortune 500 companies. We are not refering to the blue collar working class nor the uberwealthy.

Anonymous said...

Compounding at the rate of equity appreciation last 35 years easily achieves thick 7 figure retirement savings.