Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Overnight Top

We have topped out at 1249 overnight, on the ECB long term refinancing operation report.  Apparently, it came out bullishly, so you had a reflexive spike on the news.  The problem with this market is too many are counting on this silly notion of an automatic year end rally.  I even thought so! 

There are no guarantees in the stock market.  That is especially so when so many think so.  As you know, I am a CNBC fader.  I try to ignore most of the drivel on that channel, but Fast Money gives me a clear view of the short term trader sentiment.  And it is too bullish.  Anytime Brian Kelly on CNBC gets excited about stocks, I try to go the other way. We act weak for a week, not too much bearishness, and then we have a whopper of a rally and everyone is expecting us to rally relentlessly till the end of the year. 

You really have to trade the European markets to catch the bigger moves in this market, because the European traders tend to overreact much more than the American traders.  Not much to do now, unless we can take this thing back near 1250, where I will be very willing to provide supply.

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