Friday, November 4, 2011

Short Soon

We've gone up the past 2 days, after going down for 2 days.  Yet we are 35 points away from Friday's close.  I notice a subtle shift from strength to weakness here.  Sentiment has gotten much less bearish, according to surveys and just from my anecdotal feel from watching CNBC.  This while we trade sideways to down.  The Italian 10 year yields have hit a new 52 week high.  Greece is a smoke screen for the deterioration in the Italian bonds.  The ECB still hasn't signaled it will increase its bond buying program, and it will be hard to do that politically until they see the market get panicky.  The Germans are steadfastly against any monetization of PIIGS debt, so the ECB can't do much just yet.

Not sure about today, just believe we're going to go lower from these levels over the next 2 weeks.  Initial target around 1185, which is the 50% retracement of the move in October.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

What es level do you have in mind to short? Thanks.

Market Owl said...

I am looking at shorting around ES 1260 early next week.