Friday, September 16, 2011
Bear Meat
The bears are going through the grinder again. Fifth straight up day, and still a big wall of worry over Europe. The market does not make it easy on the short side. Right now, we need time at this higher level to convert more bulls before the next leg lower. I am really hoping for one more piece of government intervention in order to get performance chasers on board. That would be the easy short. If we don't get that, it will be harder to time the short, but sometime in the middle of next week sounds right. I am not interested in longs at this point until we get capitulation. The level I am looking at is ES 1222. Above that, we could get a short squeeze up to 1235.
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4 comments:
Should coincide with bullish news out of fomc next week
This market really is just an endless bid + trap door recycling. Timing is essential.
IMO, it's impossible to identify an "easy short" beforehand. You only hear people say stuff like that after the fact. Which means there's no such thing as an "easy short".
I always feel a little lucky when I make money on the short side. All the cards -- the actions of the PPT, Fed, etc etc -- are stacked against you.
One thing I learned to do in unending bids is to not pick the very top. Wait for it to break.. Once it does see if it fails to make new high or fails prev day resistance. I agree it is difficult to find an easy short. Much easier to find a bottom. 50% chance we lift the 50 day moving average on s&p if it does, bears are lunchmeat for next few months
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