Wednesday, June 1, 2011

First Day of Month Effect

This seasonality is too well known.  It vastly outperformed its historical strength over the last 2 years and that got many jumping on the bandwagon and front running the strength.  I think that explained a lot of the buying in the last hour in the ES.  The volume was quite high.  The market is never this easy.  When traders on Fast Money know about this seasonality and game it, you have to watch out for the opposite to happen. 

Something that is sticking out is dollar weakness on a strong down day.  Usually the market doesn't go down this much when the dollar is weak on the day.  Not a good sign for any kind of reversal today.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

not expecting a bounce until we break 1300.