Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Technical Analysis is Not for Me

I am not particularly fond of technical analysis.  I will mention support and resistance levels, because they matter, but you will rarely hear me mention double bottoms, head and shoulders, pennants, wedges, etc.  I don't draw trendlines.  I think trendlines are useless.  I will look at charts to have a quick visual look at historical prices.

There are many ways to make it in this game. To me, TA is mostly noise.  Maybe TA worked well in the long distant past when there weren't so many chartists out there but I don't think you can get much of an edge now.  Everyone looks at the charts now.  When most traders get the same intrepretation from analyzing charts, what makes you better than them?  I've based my method on price action, historical pattern recognition, being contrarian, and long term fundamentals.  If I knew how to program systems, I would do that as well but I am in no rush looking into that.  HFT and quant funds have a big edge on me there.

We finally have a gap down but it is limited.  If the market dips down to 1321 or unlikely, 1315, it is a strong buy down there.  We are not going down in a straight line.

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