Friday, February 4, 2011

Dollar Weakness

The dollar has steadily and quietly been getting back to its lows right around the QE2 announcement.  Although the euro hasn't been rallying much against the dollar, if you look at the chart of the AUD, or CHF, or even JPY, they are all showing clear uptrends.  The dollar got a bounce after the fiascos in Europe, but it looks like a dead cat bounce.  This dollar weakness is a megatrend that has all the fundamentals going for it.  It doesn't matter if the US economic data comes in good or bad, because the Fed has telegraphed that it will remain easy come hell or high water.  Banana Ben is sticking his head in the sand and ignoring inflation so he can pump more money.  US deficits are endless as far as the eye can see.  And even with QE2, Treasuries can't find a bid.  Imagine how weak Treasuries would be without the Fed going in there everyday bidding.

I believe this dollar weakness will manifest itself the most when investors see the big picture and rush for alternative currencies such as gold.

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