Thursday, July 15, 2010

Too Much Liquidity

The action in gold, Treasuries, and stocks all point to liquidity overflowing asset markets.  Usually when liquidity is poor, you can't have stocks and Treasuries both performing strongly.

You have the 10-Year yield below 3%, and the S&P at 1090.  When you had the S&P at 1090 in October 2009, the 10-year yield was 3.5%.  That tells you there is a mountain of cash that needs to be invested, in both bonds and stocks.  This explains the strong rally in gold and the resilience of oil despite plentiful inventories.  The employment numbers don't matter.  Liquidity always trumps the fundamentals.  As long as Bernanke is at the helm, this market will be flooded with liquidity.  The Fed has singlehandely manipulated the asset markets higher with its MBS and Treasury purchases.

No comments: