Total Collapse or Back to Even

I put the odds of a total collapse today at about 10% and the odds of getting back to the flat line at over 50%. The rest of the scenarios I see will put this market higher than the open but not quite filling the gap. Hungary problems are in the news, and the euro is getting pummelled again. Europe will be a potential threat to any rally at anytime, which makes going long so dangerous. But for today, the market should be able to shrug it off as it has shown strength the past 2 days. The nonfarm payrolls is always hyped up but I think traders are more focused on Hungary and the euro than jobs. Look for an intraday rally today.