January vs. Now

I am seeing some comparisons between the rally into January and the current rally.  Yes, there are quite a few similarities, the timing is similar, with the rally extending into the start of earnings season, the VIX reaching new 52 week lows, a cratering of bearish sentiment, and almost no weakness in the prior month. 

The differences are harder to find but there.  We didn't have a scare like Greece before the January rally, unless you call a 1 day Dubai selloff a scare.  We also had more bulls in January according to sentiment polls than now.  In other words, traders were less prepared for a deep selloff in January than they are now.  This makes me conclude that the top will be a longer process and we'll need to probably trade longer at these levels before we can reverse.  I am still in hit and run mode, and will not be hanging to shorts for too long.  I think we'll sell off on this gap up on the INTC and JPM news.