Saturday, January 23, 2010

Rethinking the Next 2 Weeks

After sleeping on it, I have reconsidered the current scenario.  I ignored the signs of impending doom and thought the bull had a bit more legs.  It is not as bullish an opportunity as I first thought.  Since we easily penetrated the 1100 level on the SPX with heavy volume, I now think we're in a period of consolidation.

I still strongly believe Monday will be a trend up day.  This based on the pure panic I saw in Friday trade.  Usually a lot of that is reversed on Monday when bargain hunters become more brave.  But after Monday, I think we'll see some choppiness and a likely retest of Friday's closing levels.  A Bernanke reconfirmation next week could take us to 1110-1115 area.  Instead of a snap back rally as I first envisioned, we'll chop around these levels for at least 1 - 2 weeks.  During that time, we might make a new low down to 1075-1085 area.  After that, I expect a resumption of the uptrend, and a trip back to ES 1140.  On a swing trading basis, I see at most 15 points of downside and 50 points of upside.


9 comments:

Anonymous said...

sounds good.

Anonymous said...

I seen 20 pts of upside and then 100 pts of downside. Im gonna trade beaten down 1 dollar stocks as usual on mkt dips and trade the levered etfs when the mkt gets extended either direction. u know how it is dawg. ill be on msn from feb first again trading all day. we're gonna make $ next week.

Anonymous said...

i think getting long vxx on the next rally might be a sure thing. there's a 50% chance it can be 100% haha

Anonymous said...

you should tweet man. just follow a good list of people who trade and they post all the news and views for you in one stream making twitter all i need. if 50% of this selloff is fear ben getting canned there is news that the democratic senate chairman and republican on the finance committee are 100% confident he will be reelected. we only love the guy when we're long.

Petsamo said...

Twitter is worthless. Don't do twitter. This blog is fine.

Anonymous said...

no seriously if you follow a good group of traders they constantly tweet news, stock picks, their trades, good urls, and analysis of the market. some of these traders are really good. you harness the power of a lot of people whose micro blogs you follow and as a result saves you time from doing your own research because the people you follow do it for you.

nicasurfer said...

The thought of Bernanke being relected has confirmed a down day on monday. Until we have him being canned and new blood in office the market will go down.

We are trading off of hate now. Cramer has it completely backwards as he did with Senator Brown. Everyone has it wrong including me. I thought the news over the weekend would be bernanke unlikely to be reconfirmed. Now it is "Bernanke likely to be reconfirmed."

Monday is going to be bloodbath.

Anonymous said...

Futures up 4, Asia not down that much.

YEAH DAWG

Anonymous said...

Futures flying. Shorts will be shelled.